2023 Elections in India are expected to be held in 9 states. These States are of North-East, Central, West and South regions. Election results from these states may predict people’s choice for upcoming 2024 Lok Sabha elections. States which are up for election are Tripura, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Mizoram, Rajasthan and Telangana. Results of these assembly elections will set trends and roadmap of upcoming Lok Sabha elections of 2024.
Out of these 9 States Tripura, Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh has majority BJP government. Meghalaya and Nagaland has NDA (BJP led alliance) governments. Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh has Congress majority governments. Telangana and Mizoram are having majority governments of regional parties, Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) and Mizo National Front (MNF) respectively.
Morover, it is speculated that Jammu and Kashmir might go towards polls. Yet Government of India didn’t announce about J&K elections . On October 31 2019 Government of India removed article 370 and Jammu and Kashmir went under Presidential rule.
2023 Elections in India: Key Battle ground States
Influential battleground states are Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. These States will have a tough contest between two National parties Bhartiya Janata Party(BJP) and Indian National Congress(INC). Bharat Rashtra Samathi (BRS) dominates Telengana. All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) is dominant in Hyderabad city area. Tripura will likely have contest Between BJP and Communist Party (Marxist). Meghalaya likely to have contest of National People’s Party (political ally of BJP) and Trinamool Congress. Mizoram to have contest between Mizo National Front (MNF) an ally of Congress at State level with Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM). Nagaland to have contest between National Democratic Alliance (NDA) parties Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) and Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) with Naga People’s Front (NPF).
Tough neck-to-neck battle between BJP and Congress:
It is predicted that a tough neck-to-neck political battle between BJP and Congress. Like Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh Karnataka and Rajasthan have Congress and BJP as main political parties dominating state politics.
In previous elections, Congress won a landslide victory in Chhattisgarh by wining 68 out of 90 seats. This marked end of BJP’s 15 year long rule of Chhattisgarh since its formation in 2000.
Congress also got majority in Rajasthan assembly by wining 100 seats. Political trends show anti-incumbency since 1998.
Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka had hung assembly with BJP being largest party. However, Congress formed governments in both states with the help of regional and small parties.
In 2018 just after 1 year government of Madhya Pradesh collapsed because of 25 Congress MLA’s defected to join BJP. BJP later got majority in Assembly after wining 18 out of 27 Congress seats.
In 2019 11 MLA’s of Congress and 3 MLA’s of Janata Dal (Secular) defected to join BJP. H. D. Kumaraswamy led Karnataka Government fell. BJP later got majority after wining 12 of the 14 Congress and JD(S) seats in by-elections.